Economic Opportunity Analysis(EOA)

Download the Economic Opportunities Analysis Here

The City’s Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) provides a factual basis for evaluating employment land within the City’s UGB. The EOA predicts the amount of land needed to accommodate future employment growth between 2021 and 2041, evaluates the existing employment land supply to determine if it is adequate to meet the need, and fulfill state planning requirements of a twenty-year supply of employment land outlined in Statewide Land Use Planning Goal 9. The EOA includes a summary of factors affecting future economic growth, projected employment growth and site needs, a buildable lands inventory, and land sufficiency reconciliation.

1. Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth

As a part of the regional economy, multiple factors impact economic development in Newberg. These impact new firms deciding to locate in the City, the ability of existing employers to expand and modernize, and the diversification of employment supported in the City. At a base level, these factors that impact a firm’s ability to be productive include labor, land, local infrastructure, access to markets, materials, and entrepreneurship. Conducting long-range economic development planning using tools such as the EOA will allow Newberg to facilitate the growth of and access to these factors more effectively for local businesses. In addition, firms decide to locate and grow based on policy decisions including regulation, taxes, and financial incentives and indirect factors such as locating near industry clusters, quality of life, and innovative capacity. National, state, and regional trends impact economic development outcomes in Newberg, and key trends analyzed in the EOA are listed below.

• County and local employment growth
• Increases in regional economic diversity
• Changes in manufacturing and the concentration of manufacturing in Oregon
• Increases in automation
• Importance of small businesses in Newberg’s economy
• Changes in the retail sector
• Continued increase in demand for energy
• A tight labor market that changed abruptly
• Availability of trained and skilled labor
• Lower household income and average wages
• Education as a determinant of wages
• Aging of the population and need for replacement workers
• Increases in racial and ethnic diversity

The EOA also examined employment trends in Newberg and Yamhill County. Key points included that Yamhill County increased employment between 3,874 jobs between 2008 and 2018, with the largest increases in education and health services, leisure and hospitality, natural resources and mining, and professional and business services. Employment in Newberg in 2018 accounted for approximately 27 percent of the County’s employment total. Over that same period, Newberg saw an increase of 837 employees. The largest increases were in health care and social assistance and private education while the largest loss was in manufacturing. Regional employment projections in the Mid-Valley region (Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties) expect the greatest employment growth in private educational and health services, government, trade, transportation, and utilities, professional and business services, construction, and leisure and hospitality. Yamhill County accounts for approximately 14 percent of employment in these four counties.

The EOA highlights Newberg’s competitive advantages and disadvantages that will affect economic development opportunities in Newberg.

Competitive Advantages		Competitive Disadvantages
	Location		Land Availability and Serviceability
	Transportation		Affordable Housing for Workers
	Access to Workers		Aging Population
	Remote Workers		Environmental and Climate Change Risks
	Access to Job Training
	Small Business and Entrepreneurial Growth
	Access to Agricultural Products
	Collaborative Economic Development Partnerships
	Tourism and Related Industries
	Scenic Resources
	Quality of Life

 

2. Employment Growth and Site Needs

The EOA’s estimate of employment land need and site characteristics for Newberg is based on expected employment growth and the types of firms that are likely to locate in Newberg over the 2021-2041 planning period. The employment projections in the EOA are based on Newberg’s existing employment base and assumes future growth is similar to Yamhill County’s long-term historical employment growth rates. The projection process includes four steps:

• Establish base employment for the projection. Start with the estimate of covered employment in Newberg, adjusted to reflect total employment in the city.
• Project total employment. The projection considers forecasts and factors that may affect employment growth over the 20-year planning period.
• Allocate employment. Employment is allocated to different land use types.
• Estimate Land Demand. Estimate general employment land demand based on employment growth and assumptions about future employment densities.

In 2018, Newberg had 9,675 covered employees (those covered by unemployment insurance). This does not include workforce such as sole proprietors, contractors or 1099 employees, among others. Covered employment in Yamhill County represents approximately 72 percent of total employment reported by the US Department of Commerce, and the EOA looked at each industry sector to identify its estimated total employment within Newberg, approximately 13,466 total employees within the Newberg UGB in 2018.

To establish the employment projection for the 2021-2041 planning period, the EOA uses a state safe harbor method allowing the City to assume that the current number of jobs in the Newberg UGB will grow during the 20-year planning period at a rate equal to the population growth rate provided in the 2020 forecast published by Portland State University’s Population Research Center. The forecast indicates that Newberg’s population will grow at an annual average growth rate of 1.39 percent, resulting in an employment projection of 18,486 employees within the UGB by 2041, an increase of 4,452 employees (32 percent) between 2021 and 2041.

The EOA allocates this future employment into broad land use categories (see Table 6):

• Industrial – Forecast to increase to 32% of employment (creating 2,407 new jobs) in 2041, up from 25% in 2021. This is based largely on the City’s economic development vision, strategy, goals, and policies in A NewBERG Community Vision and the Newberg Economic Development Strategy Update.
• Retail Commercial – expected to decrease from 11% of employment in 2021 to 9% by 2041 due to the national trend to purchasing goods online.
• Office and Commercial Services – expected to account for more than 1,000 new jobs (53% of employments) by 2041, up from 45% in 2008. Types of sectors expected to grow include health-care services and tourism-related industries (accommodation and food services).
• Government – expected to grow by more than 100 jobs, most in K-12 schools and public administration.

Table 6. Projected Employment Allocation

	2021		2041		Change 2021 to 2041
Land Use Type	Employment	% of Total	Employment	% of Total
Industrial	3,509	25%	5,916	32%	2,407
Retail	1,544	11%	1,664	9%	120
Office	7,999	57%	9,798	53%	1,799
Government	982	7%	1,108	6%	126
Total	14,034	100%	18,486	100%	4,452

 

In estimating the amount of commercial land (retail commercial and office and commercial service above, industrial is analyzed below and government is analyzed in the PSP), consideration was given for employment located in residential plan designations and employment located in existing built space. The EOA assumes that the share of employment in residential land is expected remain the same as in 2018 (15.8 percent), and that 10 percent of new commercial employment will occur in existing space. This means 1,424 of the expected 1,919 new commercial jobs in Newberg will require vacant or partially vacant employment land. Using expected employment densities in these sectors, and accounting for land required for public right-of-way, the EOA forecasts a commercial land demand of 83 gross acres (7 acres for retail commercial and 76 acres for office and commercial services).

The EOA considers site characteristics that commercial businesses need, including:

• Space in an existing building,
• Land for construction of a building designed for the firm,
• Land for construction of a commercial center,
• Visibility of location, and
• Proximity/access to a major automotive route.

To calculate an estimate of demand for land for the 2,407 new industrial employees, the EOA identifies potential growth industries and the site needs for those industries. Given Newberg’s limited supply of a diverse type of existing industrial sites, the EOA conducts a survey of comparable cities in the Willamette Valley to align identified growth industries with the types of site needed. The growth industries identified seek to address two questions: (1) which industries are most likely to be attracted to Newberg, and (2) which industries best meet Newberg’s economic development goals. The selected target industries include:

• Advanced and General Manufacturing
• Technology and High-Tech Manufacturing
• Food/Beverage Production and Agricultural Products
• Forestry and Wood Products
• Aviation-Related Industries

To identify the site needs for these potential growth industries, and analysis of site characteristics including site size, slope, railroad access, highway access, and special utility needs was conducted. Newberg has 51 unconstrained vacant or potential infill sites (one larger than 10 acres with the majority smaller than 5 acres). Newberg’s potential growth industries generally need land between 5-25 acres, with the potential of up to 100 acres. Given the limited selection of sites to base demand analysis on within Newberg, the EOA examines developed site employment in Albany, Corvallis, McMinnville, Newberg, Salem, and Woodburn. Allocating the 2,407 new industrial employees to sites based on distributions and employment densities from the comparative analysis, Newberg should expect to need 131 industrial sites covering 281 acres (see Table 7). Just over 60 percent of new employment is projected on sites less than five acres, approximately 27 percent on sites between five and 25 acres, and 12 percent on larger sites.

Table 7. Employment Site Needs

	Site Size (acres)
	< 5 acres	5-25 acres	25-50 acres	> 50 acres	Total
New Employment by Site Size
% of New Employment*	61%	27%	4%	8%	100%
# of New Industrial Employees	1,468	650	96	193	2,407
New Sites Needed
Employees per Site*	12	90	98	225
New Sites Needed in Newberg	122	7	1	1	131
New Land Needed
Average Site Size*	0.7	9.2	24.5	96.6
Acres of Land in Newberg	85	64	35	57	281
*Based on regional comparative analysis

 

When seeking land to address its employment land deficit, the EOA identifies site characteristics the City should target, including site size/acreage, land ownership, proximity/access to a major automotive route, topography of no or little slope, presence of natural features, and compatible surrounding land uses.

3. Buildable Lands Inventory

As completed in the HNA, a buildable lands inventory was conducted to identify commercial and industrial lands within the Newberg UGB available for development. The same inventory categories and development constraints were used as in the HNA (although the topography threshold was lowered to exclude lands with slopes greater than 15 percent rather than 25 percent). Table 8 provides an overview of the land classifications and areas resulting from BLI analysis.

Table 8. Employment Buildable Lands Inventory Summary

Generalized Plan Desig.	# of Lots	Acres	% of Acres	Committed Acres	Constrained Acres	Buildable Acres	Buildable Vacant	Buildable – Potent. Infill
Commercial	353	266	27%	201	12	53	26	28
Commercial	338	163	17%	146	2	15	6	10
Riverfront	5	7	1%	4	2	1	1	-
Specific Plan	5	9	1%	3	2	4	4	-
P-QP (Hospital)	1	41	4%	32	1	8	-	8
SD – Hospitality	3	35	4%	16	5	14	4	10
SD – Neighbor.	1	11	1%	-	-	11	11	-
Mixed Use	242	217	22%	169	1	25	20	4
Mixed Use	63	83	9%	73	-	10	6	4
Riverfront	12	22	2%	19	-	3	2	-
Specific Plan	161	78	8%	77	1	-	-	-
SD – Village	6	34	4%	-	-	12		-
Industrial	172	434	45%	299	84	52	12	10
Industrial	161	246	25%	194	25	27	42	7
Riverfront	5	108	11%	64	41	3	20	-
Specific Plan	3	53	5%	35	18	-	3	-
SD – Employ.	3	27	3%	6	-	22	19	3
Other - Airpark	2	54	6%
Industrial	1	12	1%	(discussed in other analysis)
P-QP	1	42	4%
Total	769	971	100%	669	97	130	88	42
Springbrook Village -34 total acres, assumes 12 for commercial per Master Plan (accounted in EOA), 22 buildable for residential.

 

Of the 917 employment acres across 769 tax lots in the City’s UGB, approximately 45 percent are in industrial plan designations, 27 percent in commercial designations, 22 percent in mixed use designations, and six percent in other designations. Across employment plan designation areas, approximately 130 acres are considered buildable, approximately 13 percent of the total acres within the City’s UGB. Just over two thirds of this buildable area is on vacant tax lots. Figure 2 shows the location of these lands across the City.

The EOA also identifies potentially redevelopable land within the UGB, land that may develop more intense employment uses in the future. Newberg has 92 acres of unconstrained potentially redevelopable land across 18 sites (26 acres in commercial plan designations and 66 acres in industrial plan designations). Vacant land is present at Sportsman Airpark, however given the additional regulations (from the FAA, Airport Master Plan, or Development Code) and limited uses, only a 10.6 acre portion available for sale is included in the City’s BLI.

The analysis also indicates the availability of short-term versus long-term employment lands. Short-term availability is defined by the state as land that is ready for construction within one year of an application for a building permit or request for service extension. Considering access to water, sanitary sewer, and stormwater, of the 130 acres of unconstrained buildable land on vacant and potential infill tax lots, 58 acres of commercial and mixed use and 44 acres of industrial land were determined to be in the short-term supply (approximately 78 percent of all unconstrained buildable land).

4. Land Sufficiency

The supply of buildable unconstrained commercial land in Newberg is 104 gross acres. Between 2021-2041 the commercial sectors are expected to need 83 acres, resulting in a commercial surplus of 21 acres. In evaluating the vacant site size types required for future industrial growth, Newberg has a deficit of sites less than five acres in size (89 sites, 62 acres), five to 25 acres (6 sites, 55 acres), and 25 to 50 acres (1 site, 35 acres). The WestRock Mill site serves as the one site larger than 50 acres projected in the EOA. This means that across site size categories, Newberg needs 96 sites and 152 acres of industrial land, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9. Employment Land Need

	Site Size (acres)
	< 5 acres	5-25 acres	25-50 acres	> 50 acres	Total
Number of Vacant Sites (BLI)	33	1	-	1	35
New Sites Needed	122	7	1	1	131
Comparison of Land Supply and Need (Land Surplus or Deficit)	(89)	(6)	(1)	-	(96)
Acres of Land Needed	(62)	(55)	(35)	-	(152)